What are Justin Trudeau’s options in Canada’s leadership crisis?

OTTAWA: The head of a Canadian political party that has been keeping Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in power said on Friday he would vote in favour of a motion of no-confidence, effectively assuring the Liberals will be removed from power early next year.

Trudeau has been under increasing pressure to quit since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over a policy clash on Monday.

Here are some potential ways forward for Canada:

What happens if Trudeau resigns?

If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party sets up a special leadership convention. The challenge for the party is that these conventions usually take months to arrange and if an election does occur before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of an interim prime minister not chosen by members. This has never happened in Canada. The Liberals could try to run a shorter convention than usual, but this might prompt protests from candidates who felt this placed them at a disadvantage.

There is no way Freeland could quickly be named prime minister on a permanent basis, since tradition dictates that the interim leader does not run as a candidate to lead the party.

Can Trudeau be forced out by his liberal party?

Unlike Britain, where party leaders are chosen by the parliamentary caucus and can be removed quickly, the Liberal leader is selected by a special convention of members. There is therefore no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.

That said, if members of his own cabinet and a large number of legislators call for him to go, he may conclude his position is untenable.

Can Trudeau be forced out by parliament?

Canadian governments must show they have the confidence of the House of Commons elected chamber. Votes on budgets and other spending are considered confidence measures and if a government loses one, it falls. In virtually all cases, an election campaign starts immediately.

Additionally, the government must allocate a few days each session to opposition parties when they can unveil motions on any matter, including non-confidence.

The House of Commons closed for the winter break on Tuesday and does not return until January 27. This suggests the earliest a confidence vote could be held is in late February or March since it would likely take weeks for the opposition to propose their own motion.

Is there any other way Trudeau can be forced out?

Ultimate constitutional power in Canada lies with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state. She can in theory remove Trudeau, but in real life this would not happen. “The governor general won’t dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University.

How might Trudeau survive?

Trudeau’s Liberals have a minority of seats in the House and therefore rely on the support of other parties on a vote-by-vote basis to govern. Until now the left-leaning New Democrats, who seek to attract the same voters as the Liberals, have helped keep Trudeau in power but are now vowing to bring him down. The leader of another opposition party, the Bloc Quebecois, said on Friday that Trudeau could not survive a no-confidence vote if one were called in early 2025.

What else could Trudeau do to avoid being ousted?

Trudeau could prorogue parliament, which would formally end the current session and give him some breathing space. Under this scenario, the return of the House would be delayed by several weeks, allowing the government to unveil a new plan for how it plans to run the country. Although this would have the advantage of delaying any motion of non-confidence, it could further anger Liberal legislators, especially if Trudeau were still prime minister.