The year 2024, though began with aspirations for positive developments capable of bringing stability to a planet engulfed in turmoil of all shapes and kinds, turned out like the previous ones i.e., an amalgamation of events that were not only consequential for the outgoing year but will have far-reaching consequences in socio-economic, geopolitical and other domains in the future that awaits us.
From conflicts, wars, elections to global efforts to tackle challenges such as climate change — this year had it all.
The year was marred by further socio-political disarray, armed conflicts with ever-worsening bloodshed displacing hundreds of thousands and exacerbating an already tumultuous geopolitical landscape adding to the existing uncertainty affecting millions if not billions directly and indirectly.
So, here’s a look at key conflicts and geopolitical events that highlighted the outgoing year.
The outgoing year saw the toll of the Russia-Ukraine war — which began in 2022 — further intensifying with both sides escalating their attacks via more extensive and disastrous use of lethal weaponry.
According to the United Nations, more than 39,000 civilians have been killed or injured in the war that has raged on for over 1,000 days now and is now nearing its third anniversary.
Apart from the bloodshed, the conflict has had severe socio-economic reverberations making over 3.5 million Ukrainians — as per the data from International Organisation for Migration (IOM) — internationally displaced persons (IDPs) coupled with over 6.7 million refugees worldwide according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
In terms of troops’ fatalities, over 71,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been killed, Al Jazeera reported, citing a late-September report by the independent Russian media outlet Mediazona.
However, Ukraine’s General Staff claims this number to be much higher, somewhere in the north of 654,000.
Similarly, where Western estimates of Ukrainian troops’ casualties stand around 80,000, but Moscow, as per a November report published on RT news website, has claimed to have killed around half a million Ukrainian personnel. However, the exact number of casualties in the existing fog of war is hard to determine.
Despite calls for an end to the war, the fighting has only been inflamed with Kyiv striking Russia with long-range US-supplied weapons resulting in Russia’s retaliation via a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik”.
Henceforth, despite calls for ceasefire and the world will be entering 2025 with a raging Ukraine-Russia war with no end to fighting in the foreseeable future.
The Middle-East, which has been a cauldron of geopolitical instability for years, continued to simmer with violence that hit the occupied Palestinian territories — Gaza, West Bank — in October last year.
The ongoing Israeli onslaught has left more than 44,000 Palestinians martyred with the injured tally exceeding 100,000, as confirmed by UN’s Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Muhannad Hadi.
Also, the conflict escalated with Israel attacking Iran’s embassy in Damascus which resulted in Tehran using long-range weapons to strike Israel in retaliation.
Iran then went on to attack Israel one more time in retaliation to Hamas and Hezbollah leaders’ killings which were then responded by Tel Aviv via airstrikes on Iran.
The war has had a devastating effect on the socio-economic fabric of the occupied territories with the an alarming increase in poverty as reflected in an assessment carried out by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA).
The flames of war, however, did not remain confined to the occupied territories but spread to neighbouring Lebanon which was invaded by the Israeli forces whose attacks displaced over one million people and pushed the death toll past 2,000.
However, the fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces finally came to a halt after the two sides reached a ceasefire after more than 12 months — a truce which still holds.
Simultaneously, Yemen’s Houthi rebels also struck multiple cargoes vessels which they allege were doing business with Israel.
December, like the rest of the year, also turned out to be eventful with a seismic shift in the Middle East’s geopolitics which saw the Syrian civil war — which had been raging on for more than a decade — reach its crescendo and culminating with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad whose family had ruled the country with an iron first for decades.
Rebels, led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Damascus in a blistering offensive whose consequential reverberations will be felt in the time to come.
With Assad securing asylum in Moscow and Mohamed al-Bashir taking charge as Syria’s new interim prime minister until March 2025, the country faces an uncertain future with millions of Syrians as well as regional stakeholders critically invested how the coming months play out.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in March, secured a landslide victory in the presidential polls via a record 87.8% vote. By winning another six-year term, Putin — who came to power in 1999 — is set to overtake Josef Stalin and become the country’s longest-serving leader in over 200 years.
Though the polls were largely criticised by the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and other western countries for lack of transparency and fairness, President Putin, it seems, is likely to rule Moscow in the foreseeable future. His role as president becomes even more crucial in light of the ongoing war with Ukraine and especially relations with the US with President-elect Donald Trump who will be taking over the White House next month.
Alexei Navalny’s death
People gather outside the Russian embassy, following the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny on February 16, 2024. — Reuters
Putin’s win came in the backdrop of Alexei Navalny’s death. Navalny was arguably Putin’s fiercest domestic critic and political opponent died in February while being incarcerated at the Ik-3 “Polar Wolf” Arctic penal colony.
Although US President Joe Biden blamed Navalny’s death on Russian authorities, Putin to be precise, Moscow categorically dismissed the allegations.
Mexico gets first woman president
The US wasn’t the only country aiming for a woman head of state in 2024 as its neighbouring Mexico also got its first woman president in the June elections with Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, securing a landslide victory against opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez.
Building up on the political capital of her mentor and outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Sheinbaum, as per a rapid sample count by Mexico’s electoral authority, managed to secure 58.3% to 60.7% of the vote. Whereas Galvez bagged between 26.6% to 28.6% of the vote.
Claudia Sheinbaum gestures to supporters after being declared the winner of the presidential election in the Zocalo plaza in Mexico City, Mexico on June 3, 2024. — Reuters
Furthermore, Sheinbaum’s Morena party and its allies managed to secure a super-majority in the lower house of Congress but fell short in the race for Senate supremacy.
The president faces an uphill battle with various challenges including but not limited to, relations with the US, issues such as migration, drug trafficking as well has domestic economic, political and law and order situation.
The right-wing trend that the world has seen in recent months was also reflected in this year’s elections for the European Parliament with 720 seats up for grabs. The four-day polls saw EPP — group of the European People’s Party (Christian Democrats) securing 26.11% of the votes to secure 188 seats.
They were followed by S&D — group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament — in the second place with 18.89% of votes which brought them 136 seats.
An illustration showing party-wise results of EU parliament. — EU
Meanwhile, PfE (Patriots for Europe) and ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists Group) got 84 and 78 seats, respectively.
The turnout remained 50.74%.
South Africa
Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress (ANF), although weakened after losing its parliamentary majority in May, survived the South African presidential polls with President Cyril Ramaphosa winning a second five-year term.
The ANC managed to win a little over 40% of vote (159 seats out of the total 400) and had to reach a power-sharing agreement with other parties, to form a government — the first time the party had to do so in 30 years.
As well as the DA, the ANC’s partners in the coalition government include the socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party and right-wing Patriotic Alliance, reported Reuters.
Under the arrangement, a DA candidate was made deputy speaker, whereas an ANC member was elected as parliament speaker.
India — Narendra Modi’s hat-trick
India — the world’s largest democracy by terms of sheer numbers — also went to the polls in 2024 with more than 600 million voters casting their ballots in general elections, the largest in history, conducted in seven phases over a period of six weeks with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contesting for 500+ Lok Sabha — lower house of India’s parliament — against the Indian National Congress (INC) led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
Indian PM Narendra Modi gestures at BJP headquarters in New Delhi, India on June 4, 2024. — Reuters
Although the BJP fell short of what it achieved in the 2019 elections, it still managed to win 240 constituencies against the INC’s 99. Together with its allies, the BJP’s numbers went up to 293 — pushing it past the 272-seats mark that it needed to form a government.
Meanwhile, the INC-led INDIA numbers totalled at 230.
A visual representation of seats secured by BJP and INC, along with their allies, in 2019 and 2024 polls. — Reuters
This victory, though diminished compared to previous years, paved the way for PM Modi to become the country’s prime minister for a record third time.
With the right-wing Hindutva-oriented BJP at New Delhi’s helm once again for five years, it would be intriguing to see whether we would see the continuation of similar policies, both internal and external, as in the past 10 years of BJP rule or would this time things be different — which again can go either way.
Iran — Raisi’s death, advent of reformist Pezeshkian
The Iranian leadership in 2024 suffered a major blow due to untimely death of president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in mountains due to bad weather near the Azerbaijan border. Among the victims were the-then foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other high officials.
The incident prompted elections in the country which weren’t due until 2025.
A collage showing late Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi (left) and his successor Masoud Pezeshkian. — Reuters/File
Several candidates participated in the ensuing closely contested July presidential polls, however, the primary contest was between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili.
Pezeshkian nevertheless emerged victorious in the second round of elections by securing 53.7% of the votes against Jalili’s 44.3%. Sworn in as Iran’s 9th president on July 30, the 69-year-old heart surgeon faces multi-prong challenges ranging from economy to geopolitics.
UK — Sun sets on Tory’s 14-year rule
The outgoing year ended up bringing major change at the 10th Downing Street with Britons ending the Conservative’s (Tory) 14-year rule in the United Kingdom.
Labour party leader and current UK PM Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria greet supporters in Downing Street, July 5, 2024. — Reuters
From the political turmoil that was set in motion in the aftermath of the Brexit which essentially ended up costing five Tory leaders their prime ministership — David Cameron (2010-16), Theresa May (2016-19), Boris Johnson (2019-22), Elizabeth Truss (2022-22) and Rishi Sunak (2022-24) — coupled with socio-economic turbulence led to the voters giving an overwhelming majority to the Labour party in the general elections.
On July 4, voting was held in 650 constituencies across the UK — 543 in England, 57 in Scotland, 32 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland — which saw Keir Starmer-led Labour winning 411 seats by bagging 33.7% — 1.6% more from 2019 — of the votes against the Conservative’s 121 seats via their share of 23.7% votes — reflecting a 20% less from 2019 polls.
A geographical map of UK showing party-wise 2024 election results. — UK govt
The Liberal Democrat party came in third with 72 seats (12.22% of votes).
PM Starmer now faces an uphill battle on various governance fronts with immigration, health sector, and worrying economic indicators along with various foreign policy challenges.
France — Left pulls through against right-wing
Prompted by several domestic factors, French President Emmanuel Macron in June announced shock snap legislative elections with the far-right eyeing major win the polls. However, the French voters had other plans as they provided a left with a win in the July polls.
In the aftermath of the elections, the left-wing New Popular Front managed to bag 182 seats compared to 168 secured by President Macron-led centrist coalition Ensemble. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally got 143 seats — therefore leaving the French with a hung parliament as the (NFP) needed 289 seats for majority.
The political uncertainty that usually arises in such situations didn’t spare France as the its far-right and left-wing lawmakers in December joined hands to successfully pass a no confidence motion with a majority 331 votes against Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Barnier then resigned with President Macron appointing Francois Bayrou as the new premier, who like his predecessor faces an uncertain future and it would have to be seen whether the political uncertainty in Paris subsides or would continue to mar the French politics in the coming year.
Bangladesh — students’ uprising and Hasina’s fall
Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, who has been in power for the last 15 years, swept the general elections — with a low turnout of about 40% compared to 80% of the 2018 poll — in January to win a fourth straight term in office by securing around 75% of the seats.
Hasina’s ruling Awami League won 222 seats out of the total 298 amid a boycott by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in what the US termed as not a free and fair election.
Her victory was short-lived as the outgoing year brought unforeseeable changes in Bangladeshi politics which saw PM Hasina fleeing to neighbouring India in the wake of deadly nationwide student-led protests, despite a brutal crackdown by the government.
Activists gather at the University of Dhaka’s Teacher Student Centre (TSC), demanding the capital punishment for Bangladeshi former PM Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, Bangladesh on August 13, 2024. — Reuters
People step on an image as they react to the resignation of Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina, on August 5, 2024. — Reuters
People climb the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman at the Bijoy Sarani area, as they celebrate the resignation of the PM Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, Bangladesh on August 5, 2024. — Reuters
People shake hands with army personnel as they celebrate the resignation of Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, Bangladesh on August 5, 2024. — Reuters
Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin (left) administers oath-taking ceremony of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the country’s head of the interim government in Bangladesh at the Bangabhaban, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on August 8, 2024— Reuters
What began as a movement against government policies regarding job quotas quickly spiralled into much broader movement fuelled by underlying sociopolitical discontent among the masses.
After the dust settled following weeks of violence which — as per the incumbent interim government resulted in around 1,500 deaths coupled with around 3,500 forced abductions — saw Bangladesh’s Nobel Peace Prize winning economist Muhammad Yunus being sworn in as the head of the caretaker government.
Yunus has said that the elections in the country could be held by the end of 2025 provided that due electoral reforms are implemented before it.
Sri Lanka gets Marxist president
Millions of Sri Lankans went to the ballot multiple times in a short time span, first in September wherein the Island nation elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its president.
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake addresses a gathering at the Presidential Secretariat, Colombo on September 23, 2024. — Reuters
However, the newly-elected president announced to hold a snap parliamentary election in less than two months in a bid to strengthen his position.
In November, the Dissanayaka, 55, bagged a thumping win securing greater legislative power to pursue policies to cater country’s financial and economic woes, corruption and other pressing issues.
His Marxist-leaning coalition, the National People’s Power (NPP) which only had mere three seats in the 225-seat parliament, managed to win 159 seats via 6.8 million votes (61.56%) in the November polls.
A list showing seats secured by various parties in Sri Lankan polls. — Election Commission of Sri Lanka
The polls saw a total of 11.8 million ballots being cast of which 11.14 million were deemed valid.
US — Donald Trump’s return to White House
In what one might term as arguably the most consequential elections of the year; the US presidential polls saw Republican candidate and the country’s 45th president Donald Trump beating his Democratic rival and incumbent Vice-President Kamala Harris in a stunning political comeback.
The President-elect — with tech billionaire Elon Musk emerging as a key supporter — managed to secure 312 (49.9%) electoral college votes against Harris’s 226 (48.3%).
President-elect Donald Trump takes the stage to address supporters at his rally, at the Palm Beach County Convention Centre in West Palm Beach, Florida, US on November 6, 2024. — Reuters
By securing over 77.1 million votes, compared to democratic candidate’s 74.7 million, Trump is set to bring back his “Make America Great Again” approach to the White House after he is sworn-in as the country’s 47th president in January.
Ever since winning the elections, Trump has confirmed adopting a tariff-heavy approach regarding his foreign and economic policy.
Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris concedes election loss at Howard University in Washington, US on November 6, 2024. — Reuters
In November, the Republican said that he would impose 25% tariff on all products from China, Mexico and Canada whereas China would face an additional 10% tariff — above any additional Tariffs — for failure to tackle fentanyl smuggling.
With Trump at the helm in Washington with his “America first” approach, it would be interesting to see how the US relations with China, Russia and Iran pan out, especially in the light of ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine the tensions revolving around the South China Sea and Beijing’s attitude towards Taiwan.
Trump in crosshairs
If the US presidential polls were already not charged enough, the election campaign saw now-President-elect Trump narrowly escaping an assassination bid during a rally in Pennsylvania.
Then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is assisted by the Secret Service after gunfire rang out during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, US on July 13, 2024. — Reuters
The shooter, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Cook, managed to graze Trump’s year using a semiautomatic rifle before being gunned down by the Secret Service personnel.
The incident seemingly failed to rattle Trump who, after being swarmed by security personnel, emerged with his fist in the air saying “Fight! Fight! Fight!”
In September, another assassination attempt was made on Trump’s life in West Palm Beach, Florida when Secret Service agents saw a gunman, later identified as Ryan Routh, pointing a rifle through a fence while the-then Republican candidate was playing golf.
The suspect was apprehended and later indicted.
Climate change — hottest year
Climate change also remained a key point of concern throughout 2024 as the year, according to EU scientists is set t be the word’s warmest since records began.
The data from EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for January-November showed that the ongoing year is the first one during which average global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.
A graph showing temperature records over the decades along with the projection of 2024 temperatures based on 10-month data. — EU’s C3S
According to C3S:
November 2024 was the second-warmest November ever globally with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 14.10°C, 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average for November.
November 2024 was 1.62°C above the pre-industrial level.
From January to November 2024, global-average temperature anomaly was recorded to be 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 average — highest on record for this period.
Average temperature for Europe for November was 5.14°C — 0.78°C above the 1991-2020.
Mercury was also above average for northern Russia, across northeastern and southwestern Europe.
Temperatures were also above average in eastern Canada, central and eastern US, most of Mexico, northwest Africa, China, Australia and Pakistan.
At nature’s mercy
Climate change, or better yet its adverse repercussions, highlighted the outgoing year with extreme weather phenomena manifested in fatal natural disasters causing significant economic loss globally.
On one hand where global warming triggered heatwaves, droughts and deadly flooding, with the wet weather proving particularly dramatic, an unusually intense rainy season in West and Central Africa killed more than 1,500 people, according to the International Organisation of Migration (IOM).
The month of September saw Hurricane Helene pounding the southeast US, Typhoon Krathon slamming into Taiwan and Storm Boris bringing floods and devastation to central Europe.
Typhoons Yagi and Bebinca left a trail of destruction in Asia.
Whereas in October, a Mediterranean storm lashed eastern Spain, triggering its worst floods in decades that killed more than 230 people.
In December Cyclone Chido devastated the French overseas territory of Mayotte.
A general overview of various climate change-related weather events around the world. — EU’s C3S
COP29
Leaders, representatives from around the world gathered in Azerbaijan’s Baku in November for the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties (COP) 29 climate summit for addressing inter alia climate financing, transition from fossil fuel, compensation for loss and damage etc.
The moot, after two weeks of intense negotiations, agreed on $300 billion a year climate financing by 2035 — a figure termed significantly low by several developing countries.
World leaders attending the UN climate change “COP29” conference in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 12, 2024. — Reuters
Furthermore, the summit also resulted in a deal allowing countries to start establishing carbon credit to bring in funding to offset their emissions or trade them on a market exchange.
However, COP29 failed to carve out measures for nation to build last year’s (COP28) pledge to transition away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy capacity this decade.
G20
Climate change, among other issues, also remained a key point of concern as the Group of 20 major economies converged in Brazil for the G20 summit where leaders from various countries called for cooperation on the aforesaid pressing issue.
Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, poverty and taxation were among the other issues that came under discussion.
Social media scrutiny
The 2024 was also the year of increased social media scrutiny with various platforms feeling the heat in multiple countries. In August, the Russian-born founder of the Telegram app, Pavel Durov, was arrested and charged with failing to curb extremist and illegal content on his network, which has 900 million users.
US tech mogul Elon Musk’s X, formerly Twitter, was banned for 40 days in Brazil in a legal tussle over disinformation with Brazilian Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes terming the platform a danger to democracy.
A representational image of a cellphone showing X owner Elon Musk’s account against the backdrop of of Brazil’s flag. — Reuters/File
The platform eventually became available to users in October after it agreed to pay $5.2 million in fines for flouting court decisions.
Popular video sharing platform TikTok was by the US to divest from from Bytedance, its Chinese owner, by January 19 or be banned. The US Supreme Court will assess the constitutionality of the law.
The platform is also being investigated by the EU over allegations it was used by Russia to sway the result of Romania’s later annulled presidential election first round, won by the far-right candidate Calin Georgescu.
Paris Olympics
Other than this year’s political turmoil, France also gained the world’s attention due to Paris 2024 which broke previous ticket records for both the Olympics and Paralympics selling 12 million tickets in in total.
Fireworks go off during closing ceremony of Paris 2024 Olympic in France on August 12, 2024. — Reuters
Around 9.5 million tickets were sold for the Olympics, whereas the number stood at 2.5 million for the Paralympics.
Paris 2024 Olympic medals’ table. — Olympics website
Previously in the 2012 London Games, organisers sold 2.7 million tickets for the Paralympics but only 8.2 million tickets were sold for the Olympics.
The Games saw hosts France securing their best-ever gold tally with 16 medals — surpassing their previous records from Atlanta 1996 (15).
The country also eclipsed their overall medal tally and ended up bagging 64 medals compared to 43 medals from Beijing 2008.
However, the US — tied with China with 40 golds — topped the medals table in terms of overall success with 126 medals.
Beijing on the other hand managed to secure 91 medals in total.
Space race — SpaceX’s ‘catch’
As various companies continue to compete to gain edge against one another in space technology, Elon Musk’s SpaceX reached a key milestone in October as it successfully “caught” its Starship’s first stage booster back to its Texas launch pad for the first time using giant mechanical arms.
As per Reuters, Super Heavy booster re-lit three of its 33 Raptor engines to slow its speedy descent back to SpaceX’s launch site, as it targeted the launch pad and tower it had blasted off from. The tower, taller than the Statue of Liberty at over 400 feet, was fitted with two large metal arms at the top.
With its engines roaring, the 233 feet (71 metres)-tall Super Heavy booster fell into the launch tower’s enclosing arms, hooking itself in place by tiny, protruding bars under the four forward grid fins it had used to steer itself through the air.
Saad Bin Aziz Ahmed is a staffer at Geo.tv. He posts on X@Saadazizahmed
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer’s own and don’t necessarily reflect Geo.tv’s editorial policy.
